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Prediction for CME (2023-07-11T19:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-11T19:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25917/-1
CME Note: Bright southern partial halo CME with a wider faint shock front. Its source is a large filament eruption with deep dimming and high post-eruptive arcades occurring in southern hemisphere south of AR 3363 around 2023-07-11T19:15Z (SDO 304,193, EUVI A 195, 304) centered around S35E05.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-14T15:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-15T00:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2023 Jul 12 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Activity included a large, active filament centered near approximately
S30E07 that eventually erupted beginning at about 11/1830 UTC. A Type II
radio sweep was reported by USAF observatories at 11/1941 UTC, which is
most likely the shock detection of the aforementioned eruptive filament.
Modeling of this event indicates a bulk of the material will pass south
of Earth with the shock and possible northern flanking edge of the
magnetic cloud arriving early on 15 Jul (outside of the current forecast
period).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 13-Jul 15 2023

             Jul 13       Jul 14       Jul 15
00-03UT       2.00         2.00         4.33     
03-06UT       1.33         1.67         4.67 (G1)
06-09UT       1.67         1.67         4.00     
09-12UT       1.00         1.67         3.33     
12-15UT       2.67         1.67         2.33     
15-18UT       2.00         3.33         2.67     
18-21UT       2.00         4.00         2.33     
21-00UT       2.33         4.33         2.67     

Rationale: Rationale: Glancing blow CME influences may lead to active
levels on 14 Jul, with a chance of G1 (Minor) storm levels. G1 levels
are more likely on 15 Jul should the CME arrive as anticipated. Forecast
confidence in timing and arrival of this CME are low.

Lead Time: 60.93 hour(s)
Difference: -8.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-07-12T02:59Z

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